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APHA Scientific Session and Event Listing

J. Mac Crawford, PhD, School of Public Health, Division of Environmental Health Sciences, Ohio State University, 1214 Kinnear Road, Columbus, OH 43212, (614) 292-5907, mcrawford@sph.osu.edu

Since the famous publication by Thomas Malthus, in which he states, “population must always be kept down to the level of the means of subsistence,” numerous economists, scholars and policy makers have pointed to the continued burgeoning, and prospering of large segments, of the human population as proof that Malthus was wrong. The fact that the world continues to support about 6.5 billion people is taken as evidence that this can continue forever. Malthus observed that, unchecked, human population would grow geometrically (exponentially) while food production would grow arithmetically (linearly). This trend would inevitably lead to a shortfall in food supplies and a consequent reduction in population. Malthus was writing in the late 18th century, however, about 60 years before the first big petroleum discoveries in Pennsylvania. The recovery of large amounts of cheap energy led to a likewise large increase in food production through mechanization and petroleum-based agrochemicals (the “green revolution”). Since 1925, world population has increased from about 2 billion to its current level of about 6.5 billion. This phenomenal tripling in 80 years would have been very unlikely or impossible without petroleum, a commodity which has been historically undervalued and under-priced. Some geologists and oil industry experts think the world is fast approaching or has already reached the peak of oil production, and the most conservative US government estimates are that production will peak about 2025. After the peak, oil will be more costly and difficult to extract, potentially leading to the vindication of Malthus' views.

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