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APHA Scientific Session and Event Listing

Dawn Alley¹, E. Jeffrey Metter, MD², Karen Bandeen-Roche, PhD³, Alan Zonderman, PhD⁴, Benedetta Bartali, RD⁵, and Luigi Ferrucci, MD, PhD². (1) Davis School of Gerontology, University of Southern California, 3715 McClintock Ave, Los Angeles, CA 90029, 213-944-3296, alley@usc.edu, (2) Longitudinal Studies Section, National Institute on Aging, 3001 Hanover Street, Baltimore, MD 21225, (3) Center on Aging and Health, Johns Hopkins Universiy, 615 N. Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205, (4) Laboratory of Personality and Cognition, National Institute on Aging, 5600 Nathan Shock Drive MSC 6825, Baltimore, MD 21224, (5) Division of Nutritional Sciences, Cornell University, Savage Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853

Weight change in adulthood is typically described as an inverted u-shaped curve, with weight gain through middle age and weight loss at older ages. However, research on weight change has relied on data collected over short periods of time or on a few widely spaced data points, limiting our ability to identify individual trajectories of weight change. Using participants with 3 or more observations and at least 20 years of data from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (N=686, ages 18-99), the objective of this study was to distinguish longitudinal weight trajectories. Descriptive statistics were used to determine the most common patterns at different ages, variation around the linear slope was used to determine distinct trajectories, and mixed effects models were used to model trajectories. Among those less than 40 and aged 40-64, more than 50% of the sample experienced increasing weight, operationalized as weight gain of an average of 0.07 BMI units per year (1/2 standard deviation from zero). At the same time, 30% of individuals in these groups remained stable. Among those over 60, 35% increased and more than 40% had stable weight. Six longitudinal trajectories were identified across all age groups: increasing, stable, decreasing, inverted U, late increase, and variable. The most common patterns were increasing (26% of the sample), stable (23%), and variable (19%). We conclude that there is significant variability in weight trajectories in adulthood beyond that described by traditional models.

Learning Objectives: At the conclusion of the session, participants will be able to

• Identify patterns of weight change in adulthood; and
• Understand variation in patterns of weight change beyond the typical inverted-U described.

Keywords: Obesity, Epidemiology

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

Any relevant financial relationships? No