155305 Estimating return of persons living with HIV/AIDS to the New Orleans area following hurricane Katrina

Monday, November 5, 2007

William T. Robinson, PhD , Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center, School of Public Health, New Orleans, LA
Debbie Wendell, MPH , Louisiana Office of Public Health, HIV/AIDS Program, New Orleans, LA
DeAnn Gruber, PhD , Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center, School of Public Health, New Orleans, LA
Joe Foxhood , Louisiana Office of Public Health, HIV/AIDS Program, New Orleans, LA
Amy Zapata, MPH , Louisiana Office of Public Health, HIV/AIDS Program, New Orleans, LA
M. Beth Scalco, MPA, LCSW , Louisiana Office of Public Health, HIV/AIDS Program, New Orleans, LA
Background

Hurricane Katrina and the ensuing flooding seriously disrupted HIV/AIDS prevention, services and surveillance efforts. Widespread evacuation invalidated all pre-Katrina population and HIV surveillance data for the New Orleans metropolitan statistical area (MSA). This study describes two methods used for estimating the return of persons living with HIV/AIDS (PLWH/A) to New Orleans.

Methods

Estimates were conducted in March and August of 2006. The proportion of the general returning population was applied to pre-Katrina HIV data to derive predicted number of PLWH/A residing in New Orleans. HIV surveillance information on current residence was collected on PLWH/A who were New Orleans residents in July 2005. By viewing cases with a confirmed current residence as a sample of the total population who had contact with the surveillance system, current residency was estimated as a proportional change.

Results

Based on population estimation methods, 4,104 of 7,068 PLWH/A are expected to have returned to the MSA (2,444 to Orleans Parish). HIV surveillance had contact with 2,885 PLWH/A and 1,836 are known to live within the MSA. Applying this proportion to pre-Katrina data, the number of PLWH/A currently living in the MSA is estimated to be 4,543 (2,615 within Orleans Parish).

Discussion

These estimates are based on several assumptions about the return of PLWH/A and are time-sensitive given the changing landscape of New Orleans. However, they do provide essential data for the planning of HIV prevention and service efforts. Furthermore, these techniques should be applicable to other public health programs faced with a large-scale evacuation event.

Learning Objectives:
1. Recognize challenges in post-disaster disease surveillance. 2. Construct statistical methods for estimating return after evacuation events. 3. Evaluate assumptions of these techniques

Keywords: Surveillance, Methodology

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

Any relevant financial relationships? No
Any institutionally-contracted trials related to this submission?

I agree to comply with the American Public Health Association Conflict of Interest and Commercial Support Guidelines, and to disclose to the participants any off-label or experimental uses of a commercial product or service discussed in my presentation.

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