Examining trends in and characteristics of youth violence at the neighborhood level

While national youth homicide rates have declined slightly in recent years, data suggest nonfatal youth violence has stabilized. Comprehensive surveillance of violence requires local level consideration of fatal and nonfatal incidents. NYC's Health Department tracks fatal and nonfatal assault-related injuries, citywide and by neighborhood, among youth (15 to 24 years). Mortality and hospitalization rates are computed from administrative datasets. Rates were compared between citywide averages and two demographically similar neighborhoods of NYC, northern Manhattan and south Bronx. To analyze trends, data were pooled into two-year groupings. NYC youth homicide rates showed no significant change from 2001-2002 to 2003-2004 (16.4 to 17.5 per 100,000 youth). Northern Manhattan homicide rates decreased 54% (15.2 to 7.0 per 100,000 youth), whereas south Bronx rates increased 44% (29.4 to 42.5 per 100,000 youth). Firearms accounted for 75% of homicides citywide; their contribution to homicides in northern Manhattan (84%) was greater than in the city overall and in south Bronx (74%). Citywide assault-hospitalization rates rose 13%, from 179.9 to 204.3 per 100,000 youth; in northern Manhattan and south Bronx rates rose 23% (149.7 to 183.7 per 100,000 youth) and 14% (306.0 to 353.1 per 100,000 youth), respectively. Citywide, 34% of hospitalizations resulted from knives. In northern Manhattan, a greater proportion of assault hospitalizations (43%) resulted from knives compared to the city overall and south Bronx (34%). Trends in youth violence vary by severity. Demographically similar neighborhoods have different patterns of violence. Prevention should target neighborhood level factors, such as access to specific weapons.