186409 Developing a Model to Project the Future Health and Social Service Needs of Baby Boomers in San Mateo County, CA

Monday, October 27, 2008: 9:00 AM

Lisa Maria B. Alecxih, MPA , Center on Long Term Care, The Lewin Group, Falls Church, VA
Namrata Sen, MPH , The Lewin Group, Falls Church, VA
Crispin Delgado, MPP , Health Policy and Planning, San Mateo County Health Department, San Mateo, CA
Scott Morrow, MD, MPH , Health Officer, San Mateo County Health System, San Mateo, CA
Sophie Shen, MPA , Center on Long Term Care, The Lewin Group, Falls Church, VA
Sarah Lash, BA , The Lewin Group, Falls Church, VA
The San Mateo County Health Department (SMCHD), California, and The Lewin Group developed a model to project the future health and social service needs of baby boomers (ages 41-59 in 2005) and young seniors (ages 60-74) in 2005 through 2030. The model allows the user to vary key assumptions and output through parameters in an Excel spreadsheet which are used by SAS to generate the projection output that are then repopulated in Excel.

The model's data sets begins with Public Use Micro-Samples (PUMS) 2000 Census data of the adult population residing in San Mateo County with a record for each person's age, sex, income, and other characteristics. The model then uses a Monte Carlo simulation to impute information on disability, retirement income, home ownership and other information not available in 2000 Census from other data sources. Assumptions were vetted and data were contributed by a cross-agency Steering Committee.

The estimates for each year are based on aging the underlying set of person records by altering the person-level record either by changing the values of reported variables, or by changing the person-weight on the record to mirror the population size and composition of future years. As part of this session, the model will be demonstrated and the output presented.

Learning Objectives:
1. Discuss socio-demographic composition and potential retirement/migratory plan of baby boomers 2. Describe model projection assumptions used to project baby boomer’s characteristics and behavior into the future 3. Discuss projection components that different government agencies can use for policy planning.

Keywords: Aging, Community Health Planning

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

Qualified on the content I am responsible for because: I was the project manager overseeing the development of the Aging 2020 San Mateo Model. I worked with San Mateo County Health Department to ensure the model development was aligned with the scope of work.
Any relevant financial relationships? No

I agree to comply with the American Public Health Association Conflict of Interest and Commercial Support Guidelines, and to disclose to the participants any off-label or experimental uses of a commercial product or service discussed in my presentation.