A framework for application of operation research techniques to prevent flood and consequent public health challenges: Lessons from floods in Surat, India

Background: Global warming is predicted to increase the risks of extreme weather events including flooding. Floods cause major public health challenges such as death and disease. The floods in Surat city in India has caused major plague epidemic in 1994 and in 2006 it caused estimated damage of 5 billions USD.

Objective: Study of causation of flood in Surat in 2006 to develop information technology based framework for decision support system (DSS) prevent floods and consequent public health challenges.

Methods: Analysis of the available reports and literature on how poor dam management caused flood of 2006 in Surat. In addition we have studied available literature on dam management in the world.

Results: Our analysis showed that Tapti rive dam is being managed using very little modern information technology or operations research (OR) tools increasing risk of flood. Using OR models of inventory control and applying them to dam on Tapi river, we have identified more than 18 parameters of the river system, which need to be considered for water management in the dam. Using these we have developed a simple conceptual framework for a Decision Support System (DSS) which can minimize risk of flood and consequent public health challenges.

Discussion/ Conclusions: Given that climate change make floods in some areas more likely, such DSS systems would help reduce the flood risk substantially. Such information technology and OR models once developed can be easily adapted to various dam systems. The public health benefit of such DSS can be immense.