Temporal Nature of Health Risk Assessment: Lessons from College Students' Perceptions of Heart Disease Susceptibility

Objectives – To examine differences in temporal absolute health risk assessment by examining the perceived proximal and distal susceptibility to heart disease among college students. Methods – A bivariate ordered probit regression model was used to simultaneously predict levels of perceived risk for both ten-year absolute risk of heart disease and lifetime absolute risk of heart disease. Results – Ten-year absolute risk and lifetime absolute risk were both increased when the number of family members with heart disease increased (β = 0.229, p = 0.000 and β = 0.382, p = 0.000, respectively), and when the respondent attributed an increasing amount of their susceptibility to heart disease to genetic causes (β = 0.070, p = 0.006 and β = 0.079, p = 0.002, respectively). Ten-year absolute risk was higher if the respondent was non-white (β = 0.391, p = 0.001), but lower if the respondent had discussed family health history with their parents (β = -0.351, p = 0.042). Conclusion – Temporality is a key consideration when determining the meaning of an individual's assessment of susceptibility to disease. As an example, college students' perceived risk of developing heart disease is influenced by different factors over the proximal and distal risk periods. Studies evaluating the utility of susceptibility as a predictor of changes in health behavior must consider the temporal perspective.