Changing trends in assault lethality in los angeles county

BACKGROUND

Recent criminal justice studies have indicated that decreased assault lethality, demonstrated by increased aggravated assault rates and decreased or stabilized homicide rates, may be attributed to advances in trauma care. Analyses of local-level assault lethality trends are important for development of local violence prevention policy.

METHODS

We calculated the lethality of assaults in Los Angeles County (LAC) using healthcare data (fatalities and non-fatal hospitalizations) and law enforcement data (Uniform Crime Reports of homicides and aggravated assaults). We also calculated the lethality of motor vehicle traffic (MVT) injuries using healthcare data for comparison. Trends for 1991 to 2010 were examined.

RESULTS

The lethality of assault hospitalizations in LAC decreased from 17% in 1991 to 14% in 2010, while lethality of gun assaults increased from 28% to 34%. MVT hospitalization lethality decreased slightly from 11% to 9%. UCR data showed that lethality of assaults generally decreased throughout the 1990s, before rising sharply through the early 2000s; since 2006, lethality has decreased slightly.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent LAC assault and MVT lethality trends indicate that the effect of improved trauma care may have leveled off and other factors such as ongoing gang violence may account for increased gun assault lethality. Assault lethality as studied in criminal justice literature can be a valuable tool for public health professionals to measure the impact of violence. The LAC findings illustrate the need to examine local-level contributors to assault lethality trends and implications of crime versus health data sources.