Projecting the local burden of Alzheimer's disease: A population-based model

Background: In the U.S., Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the fifth leading cause of death for adults 65+. AD often requires constant supervision and assistance with ADLs for an average of 8-10 years after diagnosis. There are approximately 5 million Americans living with AD, which is expected to increase significantly by 2030. This will intensify the demand for supportive services such as long term care (LTC). Methods: Rates and projections through 2030 were determined using senior population estimates and AD prevalence data. Current LTC facilities data was used to project resource availability. Results: In San Diego County, there will be an estimated 89.5% increase in the number of 65+ adults living with AD from 2008 to 2030, with the Central Region having the highest percentage increase (96.0%). The number of LTC beds per 1,000 seniors with AD will decrease from 198 per 1,000 to 104 per 1,000 in San Diego County from 2008 to 2030. The North Central Region will have the highest number of seniors living with AD by 2030, and the lowest number of beds available per 1,000 seniors with AD. Conclusions: In San Diego County, the prevalence of AD in the 65+ population is increasing dramatically. Certain areas within the county will have a greater need for supportive services that address AD. This not only highlights the need for public health efforts to reduce the impact of AD, but also calls attention to the need for increasing availability of supportive services for those suffering from AD.