High-Resolution Modeling of Climate Change in Los Angeles: Implications for Projected Human Health Impacts

Los Angeles County presents a unique challenge in assessing local climate impacts on human health. Global climate model (GCM) projections of future climate, typically produced at low (100-kilometer) resolution, have largely been insufficient for use in assessing local climate-health impacts in Los Angeles, due to the county’s varying geography and microclimates, diverse neighborhood demographics, and numerous agency jurisdictions. Hall and colleagues have laid the foundation for addressing these challenges by developing novel techniques to downscale climate change information from all available GCMs, producing climate change projections at a 2-kilometer resolution for the Los Angeles area.  Based on these high-resolution predictions, we are performing both neighborhood and countywide assessments for Los Angeles for a broad range of direct and indirect climate-health effects, ranging from heat stress, respiratory problems, and access to safe and clean water. We are also using these models and assessments as the foundation for climate action planning at the county and neighborhood level.  Our goal is to develop plans that not only improve resiliency to the health impacts of climate change, but also to build healthier, more sustainable, and more vibrant communities in general.  This work illustrates the important role that public health professionals can play in motivating and prioritizing regional adaptation strategies.  In addition, we anticipate that by illustrating the impacts of climate change on a neighborhood level, this work will help to engage the general public and key stakeholders in climate mitigation activities.