142nd APHA Annual Meeting and Exposition

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Age, period, and cohort effects in motor vehicle mortality trends by sex and role in crash in the United States, 1980-2010

142nd APHA Annual Meeting and Exposition (November 15 - November 19, 2014): http://www.apha.org/events-and-meetings/annual
Monday, November 17, 2014 : 9:15 AM - 9:30 AM

James Macinko, PhD , Department of Nutrition, Food Studies, Public Health, New York University, New York, NY
Diana Silver, PhD MPH , Nutrition, Food Studies and Public Health, New York University, New York, NY
Jin Yung Bae, JD , Department of Nutrition, Food Studies & Public Health, New York University, New York, NY
Introduction: This study assesses the contribution of age, period, and cohort (APC) effects on trends in deaths from motor vehicle crashes (MVC) from 1980-2010 by sex and position in the crash (driver, passenger, pedestrian) to provide evidence for policymakers seeking to reduce MVCs.

Methods:  We use data from the Fatal Accident Reporting Systems (FARS) and 5-year population counts from the Census Bureau to construct age-specific death rates. Since poisson regression models confirm that effects of cohort factors are linearly dependent on age and period, these analyses use the Intrinsic Estimator technique to produce estimates of risks of death for all three effects simultaneously relative to the average of the given age range, period, or cohort, respectively. 

Results: Findings confirm large, significant reductions in MVC deaths over time and highlight differences between men and women, by age and by period. These effects differ by the role of the deceased in the MVC by sex, and vary by age, period and cohort. Similarly, patterns of fatality risks differ by sex when crashes are analyzed by whether alcohol was involved. Risks of fatality in MVC crashes when alcohol was involved declined by period for those aged 15-25 more rapidly than those for which alcohol was not, and exhibited cohort effects similar to non alcohol-related fatalities. 

Conclusions: Results suggest success for reducing risks among young drivers, while highlighting less progress with other groups, such as older pedestrians and younger occupants. Observed differences among male and female drivers may warrant changes in current intervention strategies.

Learning Areas:

Public health or related public policy
Public health or related research

Learning Objectives:
Describe the patterns of decreased risk of motor vehicle fatalities over time, and by age, period and cohort 1980-2010. Identify differences in patterns of risk for men and women, and for recent cohorts (born 1965 and older). Discuss implications of period and age cohorts by sex and role in vehicle for policymakers and public health leaders seeking to decrease fatalities due to motor vehicle crashes.

Keyword(s): Transportation, Public Health Research

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

Qualified on the content I am responsible for because: I am a co-author on the paper, a professor of public health and policy, and I am a co-PI on a NIH funded study that studies this topic.
Any relevant financial relationships? No

I agree to comply with the American Public Health Association Conflict of Interest and Commercial Support Guidelines, and to disclose to the participants any off-label or experimental uses of a commercial product or service discussed in my presentation.