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Lyme disease in Rhode Island: How a combination of climate patterns may influence the number of cases
Introduction: Lyme disease is an endemic bacterial disease found primarily in the northeast and upper mid-west regions of the country including states like Rhode Island. The life cycle of the primary vector for the disease, the black-legged tick, involves different hosts one of which includes the white-footed mouse. Previous studies have independently demonstrated how patterns of precipitation and temperature are associated with an increase in populations of each species. However what has not been demonstrated extensively is if a combination of these climatic patterns are also associated with an increase in case counts for Lyme disease. The purpose of this study is to determine if such an association exists between these factors in Rhode Island.
Methods: Using county level data for both confirmed and probable Lyme disease cases obtained from the Rhode Island Department of Health and archived data on both precipitation and temperature obtained from the Northeast Regional Climate Center, a zero-inflated Poisson regression will be used to determine any potential associations. Case count data will be categorized by month of symptom onset and the climatic factors will be categorized by monthly averages for each county.
Results: An initial analysis of the case-counts indicates that 8165 total cases of Lyme disease were reported between 1992-2012 in Rhode Island. Of these, 7935 (97.1%) were reported in one of the five counties, while the remaining 230 (2.81%) had an unknown status. Climatic data is now in the process of being collected with the zero-inflated Poisson regression to follow afterward to test for associations.
Conclusion: This study seeks to identify factors that may increase the risk for Lyme disease transmission in Rhode Island by determining if a combination of climactic patterns favorable to both deer ticks and white-footed mice are associated with an increase in case counts for Lyme disease.
Learning Areas:
Environmental health sciencesEpidemiology
Protection of the public in relation to communicable diseases including prevention or control
Public health biology
Public health or related research
Learning Objectives:
Describe the burden of Lyme disease in Rhode Island
Describe the relationship between the risks associated with a vector borne disease and the biology of both the vector and hosts associated with the disease.
Keyword(s): Environmental Health, Climate and Health
Qualified on the content I am responsible for because: I am a PhD student in Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety and I have taken numerous courses in various public health topics. I have a research interest in how climate may impact the spread of infectious diseases.
Any relevant financial relationships? No
I agree to comply with the American Public Health Association Conflict of Interest and Commercial Support Guidelines, and to disclose to the participants any off-label or experimental uses of a commercial product or service discussed in my presentation.