142nd APHA Annual Meeting and Exposition

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No Product? No Program: Adapting malaria commodity supply to seasonal changes

142nd APHA Annual Meeting and Exposition (November 15 - November 19, 2014): http://www.apha.org/events-and-meetings/annual
Tuesday, November 18, 2014 : 10:42 AM - 10:54 AM

Loren Bausell, MPH , USAID | DELIVER, John Snow, Inc., Arlington, VA
Noel Watson, MA, PhD , OPSMEND, Medford, MA
Andrew Inglis , John Snow, Inc., Arlington, VA
Wendy Nicodemus, MA , USAID | DELIVER and SCMS, Lusaka, Zambia, John Snow, Inc, Lusaka, Zambia
Katherine Wolf , USAID | DELIVER Project, Task Order Malaria, John Snow, Inc., Arlington, VA
Tinei Chitsike , USAID | DELIVER and SCMS, Harare, Zimbabwe, John Snow, Inc., Harare, Zimbabwe
Parfait Edah , USAID | DELIVER, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, John Snow, Inc., Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
Background:  Health workers often base commodity order quantities on recent months’ consumption data. But in locations where seasonality affects malaria drug demand and facility accessibility, this Average Monthly Consumption (AMC) method is less effective. To improve the accuracy of the AMC method in locations affected by seasonality, we developed the Look-ahead Seasonality Indices (LSI).

Methods: The LSI multiplies AMC by indices compensating for seasonality, adding one variable to the standard resupply formula. The USAID | DELIVER PROJECT analyzed two years of consumption data from health facilities in Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Burkina Faso to develop LSIs for each country. We modeled the LSI approach, comparing it to four other resupply models (including AMC) and evaluating it as an inventory replenishment mechanism and forecasting method.

Results: LSI outperformed AMC in all countries. The LSI in Zambia closely tracked the most sophisticated model, and was 40 percent more accurate in forecasting than AMC.  For inventory replenishment, costs due to lost consumption were 31 percent lower for LSI in Zambia and 50 percent lower in Zimbabwe than AMC.  In Burkina Faso, weaknesses in national consumption data availability affected the ability of the modeling to predict performance.  Additional data would strengthen the model.

Conclusions: Compared to AMC, the LSI provides an enhanced but simple method of calculating resupply for seasonal commodities. Compared to more sophisticated alternatives, the LSI could be implemented easily and potentially applied in countries using AMC. A pilot assessment of the LSI will test its practicality and results in a controlled field-setting.

Learning Areas:

Conduct evaluation related to programs, research, and other areas of practice

Learning Objectives:
Describe how the Look-Ahead Seasonality Indices (LSI) approach is able to compensate for seasonal changes and enhance the standard, average monthly consumption method in supplying malaria commodities. Explain the results of LSI performance as an inventory mechanism and forecasting method, in comparison to other resupply approaches.

Keyword(s): International Health, Evaluation

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

Qualified on the content I am responsible for because: I am a co-author of the related USAID | DELIVER paper, "Malaria Seasonality and Calculating Resupply" and ongoing pilot work. My professional expertise focuses on monitoring and evaluation methods, particularly regarding measuring the performance of health commodity supply chains in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia.
Any relevant financial relationships? No

I agree to comply with the American Public Health Association Conflict of Interest and Commercial Support Guidelines, and to disclose to the participants any off-label or experimental uses of a commercial product or service discussed in my presentation.