No Product? No Program: Adapting malaria commodity supply to seasonal changes
Methods: The LSI multiplies AMC by indices compensating for seasonality, adding one variable to the standard resupply formula. The USAID | DELIVER PROJECT analyzed two years of consumption data from health facilities in Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Burkina Faso to develop LSIs for each country. We modeled the LSI approach, comparing it to four other resupply models (including AMC) and evaluating it as an inventory replenishment mechanism and forecasting method.
Results: LSI outperformed AMC in all countries. The LSI in Zambia closely tracked the most sophisticated model, and was 40 percent more accurate in forecasting than AMC. For inventory replenishment, costs due to lost consumption were 31 percent lower for LSI in Zambia and 50 percent lower in Zimbabwe than AMC. In Burkina Faso, weaknesses in national consumption data availability affected the ability of the modeling to predict performance. Additional data would strengthen the model.
Conclusions: Compared to AMC, the LSI provides an enhanced but simple method of calculating resupply for seasonal commodities. Compared to more sophisticated alternatives, the LSI could be implemented easily and potentially applied in countries using AMC. A pilot assessment of the LSI will test its practicality and results in a controlled field-setting.
Learning Areas:Conduct evaluation related to programs, research, and other areas of practice
Describe how the Look-Ahead Seasonality Indices (LSI) approach is able to compensate for seasonal changes and enhance the standard, average monthly consumption method in supplying malaria commodities. Explain the results of LSI performance as an inventory mechanism and forecasting method, in comparison to other resupply approaches.
Keyword(s): International Health, Evaluation
Qualified on the content I am responsible for because: I am a co-author of the related USAID | DELIVER paper, "Malaria Seasonality and Calculating Resupply" and ongoing pilot work. My professional expertise focuses on monitoring and evaluation methods, particularly regarding measuring the performance of health commodity supply chains in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia.
Any relevant financial relationships? No
I agree to comply with the American Public Health Association Conflict of Interest and Commercial Support Guidelines, and to disclose to the participants any off-label or experimental uses of a commercial product or service discussed in my presentation.