A Socio-Ecological Model as a Framework for Post-Conflict Health Analysis

Background

In the Kuwait context, there were a series of chemical and psychological Gulf War-era exposures that left permanent damage from January 1991 until December 1991. 

Extreme stress from a critical event speeds up the usual disease latency period, and may be part of a synergistic effect that leads to higher disease rates over a shorter period of time.

Model Description

I am interested in the impact of armed conflict on health outcomes over the life-course in Kuwait, and particularly the pathways through which armed conflict causes changes in health on a population level.  I propose a culturally-sensitive, post-conflict socio-ecological model based on life course theory. 

Novel Methods

My methodological approach is distinct from previous post-conflict studies because it employs a novel, mixed-methods approach. Interview and survey data, demographic databases and epidemiologic data from the individual informant and the informant's context were collected.

I am employing an analysis that combines statistical, descriptive, structured analyses of population, community and individual-level data. 

Conclusion

The main advantage of a life-course approach is that it contextualizes the Gulf War as an environmental justice issue.  This project seeks to inform the public of war-related cancer risks by focusing on breast cancer as one particular outcome in Kuwait.

The model predicts an accelerated latency period that helps to inform health professionals when to expect cancer incidence to increase in Kuwait.

With increased stress, trauma and numerous life changes in the post-conflict period, we hypothesize cancer rates will significantly rise in Kuwait, more so than if the war had not occurred.