142nd APHA Annual Meeting and Exposition

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Risk mapping for Leishmaniasis in Brazil: The use of ecologial niche models

142nd APHA Annual Meeting and Exposition (November 15 - November 19, 2014): http://www.apha.org/events-and-meetings/annual
Tuesday, November 18, 2014 : 11:30 AM - 11:45 AM

John Malone, PhD , Pathobiological Sciences, Louisiana State University School of Veterinary Medicine, Baton Rouge, LA
Moara Martins, PhD (c) , Pathobiological Sciences, Louisiana State University School of Veterinary Medicine, Baton Rouge, LA
Audio (mp3) recording Recorded Presentation (mp4)
We identified environmental and socioeconomic factors associated with the occurrence of cutaneous (CL) and visceral (VL) leishmaniasis in Brazil from 2005 to 2009.  We used ecological niche models to predict the risk of disease at the municipality level. A GIS was constructed using records of CL and VL cases available in the national notifiable diseases information system (SINAN) database.  Records from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and PAHO unsatisfied basic needs data for people (UBNp) and housing (UBNh) were used as socioeconomic data variables. Environmental data included long-term normal monthly climate from WorldClim and MODIS remote sensing annual composite image data. Probability distribution models for CL and VL based on environmental and socioeconomic features were created using Maxent and ArcGIS 10 software.

From 2005 to 2009, a total of 96,351 cases of CL and 13,563 cases of VL were registered by SINAN. For CL, Maxent variables that contributed most to the environmental risk model were September precipitation (26.2%)and annual precipitation (17.3%). For VL, precipitation in October (11.6%) and mean temperature of warmest quarter (14.5%) were most influential. Maxent socioeconomic models were most influenced by UNBp education (39.6%), UNBH plumbing (11.3%)and number of health units (8.8%) for CL and human development index (25.7%), literacy rate (24%) and sewage services (18.9%) for VL.

Our results suggest that Maxent ecological niche modeling can be used to generate probability distribution maps based on limited distribution point data, and that these models can be used to guide resource allocation in control programs.

Learning Areas:

Communication and informatics
Environmental health sciences
Protection of the public in relation to communicable diseases including prevention or control
Systems thinking models (conceptual and theoretical models), applications related to public health

Learning Objectives:
Describe the environmental risk factors that differentiate the ecological niches of visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis in Brazil. Explain risk maps developed using census data on socioeconomic factors that favor propagation and transmission of visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis in Brazil.

Keyword(s): Geographic Information Systems (GIS), International Health

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

Qualified on the content I am responsible for because: Extensive experience in using ecological niche models to characterize disease risk
Any relevant financial relationships? No

I agree to comply with the American Public Health Association Conflict of Interest and Commercial Support Guidelines, and to disclose to the participants any off-label or experimental uses of a commercial product or service discussed in my presentation.

Back to: 4142.0: International Innovations in Geoscience and Healthography