315008
Mortality from motorcycle crashes: The baby-boomer cohort effect
The mileage-based fatality risk for motorcyclists is 31 times that for car occupants. In 2008, motorcyclists made up 14% of the total mortality from motor vehicle crashes, an increase of 132% since 1998. We aimed to assess the cohort effect of the baby-boomer generation in motorcycle crash mortality in the US from 1975 to 2009.
Methods:
Using data from Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), we performed an age-period-cohort analysis with the three-phase method: 1) a graphical representation and inspection; 2) a median polish to remove the additive components of age and period effects; and 3) a linear regression of median polish residuals to quantify the magnitude of the cohort effect compared to a reference cohort.
Results:
From 1975 to 2009, annual mortality rates from motorcycle crashes per 100,000 population decreased 6%. Graphical presentation indicated a moderate cohort effect ascribed to the baby boomer generation (i.e., those born between 1955 and 1964). After removing the additive effects of age and period, the estimated mortality risk from motorcycle crashes for “baby boomers” born between 1960 and 1964 was more than three times that for those born between 1940 and 1944 (rate ratio 3.19; 95% CI, 1.56-6.55)
Conclusions:
The baby-boomer generation, particularly those born between 1960 and 1964, has experienced significantly higher mortality from motorcycle crashes than the earlier cohort. To reduce motorcycle crash mortality, intervention programs specifically tailored for the baby-boomer generation are warranted.
Learning Areas:
EpidemiologyOther professions or practice related to public health
Public health or related research
Learning Objectives:
Explain to the audience the different definitions of the cohort effect.
Describe age, period, and cohort patterns in motorcycle crash mortality.
Explain the multiphase approach to age-period-cohort analysis and the intrinsic estimator method.
Analyze the finding of a significant cohort effect in the context of injury control and prevention.
Keyword(s): Public Health Research, Violence & Injury Prevention
Qualified on the content I am responsible for because: I have research experience in descriptive epidemiology and I am currently training in epidemiology at the PhD level. For this particular abstract, I led the design, analysis, and writing. My scientific interests focus on mental health long term effects in post-civil war areas. Currently, these interests have led to research regarding other areas in injury epidemiology, specifically fatal injuries from road crashes.
Any relevant financial relationships? No
I agree to comply with the American Public Health Association Conflict of Interest and Commercial Support Guidelines, and to disclose to the participants any off-label or experimental uses of a commercial product or service discussed in my presentation.